A ‘vicious’ combination of vandalism, corruption, sabotage and theft conspired over many years to render Eskom incapable of meeting the country’s electricity demand.

Optimum Group economic adviser Dr Roelof Botha notes the root causes of the problems identified by outgoing Eskom CEO André de Ruyter are linked to the deployment of incompetent and corrupt officials at virtually all levels of management at Eskom, ‘with private companies also part of a Mafia-type network. These problems are pervasive and also involve a shocking maintenance backlog caused by previous members of Eskom’s board and executive management’.

Furthermore, says Botha, serious design flaws at the Medupi and Kusile power stations – combined with shoddy workmanship, lack of sophisticated security systems and a lack of technical and management expertise in certain areas – will continue to place pressure on electricity generation for many years to come.

Writing in Business Day, Botha says in addition to a large measure of incompetence and over-regulation, ‘it was simply because former President Jacob Zuma and his inner circle involved had their greedy eyes fixed on an unaffordable nuclear energy deal with Russia valued at more than R1.1trn. Nhlanhla Nene, Finance Minister at the time, was fired for pointing out the absurdity and fiscal unaffordability of this project. The government’s deliberate decision under Zuma to halt the renewable energy programme for five years between 2013 and 2018 is one of the main reasons for the occurrence of load shedding today.’

In suggesting a way forward, Botha says the ‘number one priority should be the rapid investment in solar power on an unprecedented scale.

In the absence of sufficient energy, roads will continue to crumble, hospitals will not be able to switch on life-supporting equipment, skills development will be thwarted, food insecurity will set in, leading to malnutrition, and economic production will be severely curtailed.’

However, Botha warns the economy cannot wait for the government’s dismal failures over a period of two decades in expediting the expansion of renewable energy.

According to recent research by Urban-Econ, Nikela and Blue Horizon, SA already possesses a well-developed solar photovoltaic industry, with close to 750 companies employing about 20 000 people. 

Botha says it is now up to the government ‘to assemble a team of experts on solar photovoltaic to guide and oversee a concerted solar power drive, working closely with the Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme and the Presidency in devising a method to prevent delays in decision-making – ‘even if this relegates the Department of Mineral Resources & Energy to observer status’.

He adds: ‘Harnessing the immense power of the sun via close co-operation between the private sector and Eskom, including a further healthy dose of deregulation, could well put paid to excessive load shedding within a couple of years.’

Full analysis in Business Day