SA’s 21 000km rail network used to be a matter of national pride, accounting for about 80% of Africa’s total network.

However, decades of poor management, under investment and theft has transformed this once great national asset into a national crisis, chopping 2% off annual GDP and another 4% in missed opportunities.

That’s according to Stellenbosch University logistics Professor Jan Havenga.

The Citizen reports he said the 21 000km rail network is the product of a series of mistakes going back 165 years, including selecting the wrong gauge for optimal efficiency and repeated violations of political promises to run the network on business rather than political principles.

About 87% of all freight in the country is moved by road, when much of this – particularly commodities and palletised goods – should by shipped by rail.

Havenga estimated that 28% of domestic mining produce, 20% of manufactured goods and 28% of palletised goods currently travelling on roads could be shifted to rail.

Africa Rail Industry Association chair James Holley outlined the deteriorating performance of Transnet: in 2018 it moved 226m tons, falling to 173m tons in 2022. 

The Citizen notes that this is likely to fall to 155-160m tons for the latest financial year to March 2023, representing a 29% decline in five years.

In the last 20 years, while India’s freight volumes increased 370%, SA’s actually declined.

Last year the coal line hit its lowest volumes since 1993, while iron ore exports are at their lowest since 2010.

‘The implications for the future of the country are significant and we seem to be approaching a critical inflection point with regards to our railways. If we don’t change direction quickly the ramifications for our industry are very concerning, but perhaps more so are the consequences for the upstream economy,’ added Holley.

Full report in The Citizen